Montreal
Perspectives of the market of the dwelling 2010-2011 (Province of Quebec)
MONTREAL, QUEBEC--(Marketwire - August 31 2010) - according to the last anticipations carried out by the Canadian Corporation of mortgage and of lodging (SCHL), the economical return, the favorable conditions of loan and the important migratory flood will stimulate the market of the dwelling of the Quebec this year.
"Since the second semester of 2009, the improvement of world-wide economical situation and national did to feel its effects on all the sectors of the Quebec economy. What's more public funds devoted to works of infrastructure, the expenditures of the households and the investments of the private sector recommenced to grow, while the exportations well reacted to the increase of the world-wide request. Consequently, the economy of the province should grow 3.1% in 2010 and of 2.6% in 2011," explains Kevin Hughes, regional economist to the SCHL.
Various demographic factors will come to support the market of the dwelling to the Quebec in the next years. The increase of the migratory balance will continue to have a favorable incidence on the markets of the rental lodgings and of the sold. In addition, the ageing of the population and the recent ascent of the rate of birthrate will incite doubtless households to review their lodging needs.
In detail
At workput, individual lodgings: The latter times, the segment of the individual lodgings widely took advantage improvement of economical and financial situation, just like decrease of the offer on the market of the sold. Nevertheless, the relaxation of the market of the sold and the tendency of the buyers to look for more reasonable lodgings will reduce the pressures that exercised themselves on the builders. It should begin himself about 19 525 individual houses in 2010 and 17 800 others in 2011.
At workput, collective lodgings: Two factors will weigh on the at work placements of collective lodgings in 2011: the current abundance of the offer, that will remain comparatively intact, and the slowed growth of the population of oldest children of 75 years and more, that will reduce the residence request for elderly people. Nevertheless, considering the vigor of the activity at the beginning of year, the number of at work placements of collective lodgings will surpass the 29 000 in 2010, before descending to less than 25 000 in 2011.
Sold : After a remarkable return in 2009, which continued during the first quarter of 2010, the number of sales MLS® Will moderate itself of here the end of the year. Once more, the sales of existing condos (houses arranged some or apartments) will be one composing important of the activity on the market of the sold. The number of recorded transactions to the MLS® Will attain 81 800 this year and will be situated in about 81 100 in 2011.
Price : Associated to the inflation of the offer, the fold of the request of existing lodgings will lessen the pressures to the increase that will exercise themselves on the prices these two next years. A return to a more stable market will moderate the progression of the prices of sell in 2010 and in 2011: the prices will establish themselves in average to 238 900 $ this year, then they should grow the next year to a rhythm that corresponds more to the inflation and to set up itself to about 242 000 $.
The rates hypothécaires : The rates hypothécaires posted will climb back up gradually, but slowly, to the second semester of 2010 and in 2011. This year, the posted rate of the ready ones of a year should oscillate between 3.4 and 4.5% and the one of the ready ones of three years and of five years, between 4.0 and 6.5%. In 2011, the posted rates should situate themselves in forks going of 4.5 to 6.0% for the ready ones of a year and of 5.0 to 7.5% for the ready ones of three years and of five years.
Putting to more than 60 contribution years of experience by way of national organism person in charge of the dwelling to Canada, the SCHL helps the Canadians to attain a fan of durable, reasonable lodgings and of quality. She offers equally data, analyses and reliable, impartial and current reports on the market of the dwelling to help the consumers and the sector of the dwelling to take important decisions. For in more knowledge, compose the 1-800-668-2642.
| Anticipations SCHL relating to the market of the dwelling: province of the Quebec - summer 2010 | |||||||||
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010(p) | 2011(p) | ||
| Residential construction (1) | |||||||||
| (at work put) | |||||||||
| Individual houses (1,1) | 28.871 | 23.930 | 21.917 | 22.177 | 19.778 | 17.535 | 19.525 | 17.800 | |
| -17.1 | -8.4 | 1,2 | -10.8 | -11.3 | 11,3 | -8.8 | |||
| Collective lodgings (1,2) | 29.577 | 26.980 | 25.960 | 26.376 | 28.123 | 25.868 | 29.900 | 24.800 | |
| -8.8 | -3.8 | 1,6 | 6,6 | -8.0 | 15,6 | -17.1 | |||
| Total | 58.448 | 50.910 | 47.877 | 48.553 | 47.901 | 43.403 | 49.425 | 42.600 | |
| -12.9 | -6.0 | 1,4 | -1.3 | -9.4 | 13,9 | -13.8 | |||
| Walked of the sold (2) | |||||||||
| Sales MLS® | 68.268 | 70.385 | 71.622 | 80.649 | 76.762 | 79.290 | 81.800 | 81.100 | |
| 3,1 | 1,8 | 12,6 | -4.8 | 3,3 | 3,2 | -0.9 | |||
| Average price MLS® ($) | 171.774 | 184.492 | 195.171 | 207.530 | 215.307 | 225.412 | 238.900 | 242.000 | |
| 7,4 | 5,8 | 6,3 | 3,7 | 4,7 | 6,0 | 1,3 | |||
| Other informers (3) | |||||||||
| Growth of the PIB (%) | 2,7 | 1,8 | 1,7 | 2,8 | 1,0 | -1.4 | 3,1 | 2,6 | |
| Growth of the job (%) | 1,4 | 1,0 | 1,3 | 2,3 | 0,8 | -1.0 | 2,1 | 2,0 | |
| Total net migration (3,1) | 36.189 | 29.035 | 28.118 | 32.698 | 39.158 | 49.896 | 51.100 | 54.800 | |
| -19.8 | -3.2 | 16,3 | 19,8 | 27,4 | 2,4 | 7,2 | |||
| (1) source and anticipations: SCHL. (1,1) Adjacent Houses to no other building, (1,2) doubled Houses and some arranged or apartments | |||||||||
| (2) source: Canadian association of the building, Multiple Listing Service (MLS®), anticipations: SCHL. historic data and based anticipations on the available data until April 23 2010 | |||||||||
| (3) source: Statistics Canada, anticipations SCHL. (3,1) Sum of the international report, report interprovincial and balance of the non permanent residents | |||||||||
From RBC's Special Report on Housing Affordability across Canada published March 2008:
Montreal - housing market stability continues
The sales-to-new listings ratio continues to signal balanced conditions. House price gains are moving along at a healthy 5% year-over-year pace across all home segments. Steady real-estate markets are providing a good support to the domestic side of the economy. The combination of somewhat softer income gains in the final quarter of the year combined with rising mortgage rates led to an erosion of affordability, but the change was only modest. Going forward, the trend on overall affordability is expected to be an improving one. We expect the resale market to soften in 2008. The new home market has already slowed. Housing starts came in at 25,000 units last year but activity should cool this year as new construction in both singles and multiple units decline.
Mortgage Carrying Costs
House Prices
Resale Market
Quebec - affordability still manageable
The nationwide deterioration in affordability conditions hit every province last year. The hit to Quebec, however, was much more muted. A generally balanced market has helped keep affordability conditions generally in check. House prices continue to modestly outpace income gains but the gap between the two measures is expected to narrow this year as price growth moderates to the 5% range in 2008. Housing starts have been running at elevated levels (close to 49,000 units) in each of the last three years. New home construction is expected to slow modestly in 2008 (46,000 units) and more significantly by 2009 (40,000 units) as housing markets shift into slower gear.
